# SkillPatch skill: earnings-analysis Create professional equity research earnings update reports (8-12 pages, 3,000-5,000 words) analyzing quarterly results for companies already under coverage. Fast-turnaround format focusing on beat/miss analysis, key metrics, updated estimates, and revised thesis. Includes 1-3 summary tables and 8-12 charts. Use when user requests "earnings update", "quarterly update", "earnings analysis", "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 results", or post-earnings report. You (the agent) were given this URL and asked to use this skill. This is a **public** skill — no SkillPatch account, API key, or prior setup is required. Two ways to use it: **1. Use it right now** — the skill's complete file tree (SKILL.md + all reference files) is inlined below; read `SKILL.md` first, then follow it, consulting the other files as it directs. **2. Install the exact package onto disk** (recommended if you can run a shell — this reproduces the skill byte-for-byte, including any binary assets that can't be inlined): ```bash mkdir -p .claude/skills/vs-equity-research-earnings-analysis curl -sSL https://skillpatch.dev/install_skill/vs-equity-research-earnings-analysis | tar -xz -C .claude/skills/ ``` (`.claude/skills/` is Claude Code's convention; use whatever directory your agent loads skills from.) --- ## Skill files (4) - `SKILL.md` - `references/best-practices.md` - `references/report-structure.md` - `references/workflow.md` ### `SKILL.md` ````markdown --- name: earnings-analysis description: Create professional equity research earnings update reports (8-12 pages, 3,000-5,000 words) analyzing quarterly results for companies already under coverage. Fast-turnaround format focusing on beat/miss analysis, key metrics, updated estimates, and revised thesis. Includes 1-3 summary tables and 8-12 charts. Use when user requests "earnings update", "quarterly update", "earnings analysis", "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 results", or post-earnings report. --- # Equity Research Earnings Update Create professional **EARNINGS UPDATE REPORTS** analyzing quarterly results for companies already under coverage, following institutional standards (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley format). **Key Characteristics:** - **Length**: 8-12 pages - **Word Count**: 3,000-5,000 words - **Tables**: 1-3 summary tables (NOT comprehensive) - **Figures**: 8-12 charts - **Turnaround**: 1-2 days (within 24-48 hours of earnings) - **Audience**: Clients already familiar with the company - **Focus**: What's NEW - beat/miss, updated estimates, thesis impact - **Font**: Times New Roman throughout (unless user specifies otherwise) ## When to Use Use when the user requests: - "Create an earnings update for [Company] Q3 2024" - "Analyze [Company]'s quarterly results" - "Post-earnings report for [Company]" - "Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 update for [Company]" **Do NOT use if:** - User requests "initiation report" → Use different skill - User requests "flash note" or "quick take" → Different format - Company is not already covered → Need initiation first ## Critical Requirements ### 1. Speed & Timeliness - Publish within 24-48 hours of earnings release - Focus on NEW information only - Don't rehash company background extensively ### 2. Beat/Miss Analysis - Lead with whether company beat or missed estimates - Quantify variances (e.g., "Revenue beat by $120M or 3%") - Explain WHY results differed from expectations ### 3. Summary Format - Keep tables to 1-3 (summary only, not comprehensive) - No full P&L/Cash Flow/Balance Sheet (just key metrics) - Assume reader has seen initiation report ### 4. Citations & Source Attribution ⭐⭐⭐ MANDATORY **CRITICAL**: Properly cite all data with SPECIFIC sources and CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS. **Include specific citations WITH CLICKABLE LINKS in every figure and table:** ``` Source: Q3 2024 10-Q filed November 8, 2024; Company earnings release [Hyperlink "10-Q" to: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=...] [Hyperlink "earnings release" to: https://investor.company.com/news/q3-2024] ``` **HOW HYPERLINKS SHOULD APPEAR IN WORD:** - Document names appear as blue, underlined clickable links - Reader can Ctrl+Click to open source directly - Not plain text URLs - formatted hyperlinks with display text **REQUIRED SOURCES LIST:** Cite in every earnings update: - ✅ Earnings release (with date and URL) - ✅ 10-Q filing (with filing date and EDGAR link) - ✅ Earnings call transcript (with date) - ✅ Investor presentation/supplemental materials (if available) - ✅ Consensus estimates source (Bloomberg/FactSet/etc. with date) - ✅ Prior guidance (from previous quarter's materials) **REFERENCE SECTION WITH CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS:** Include "Sources" section at end of report: ``` SOURCES & REFERENCES Earnings Materials (Q3 2024): • Earnings Release (November 7, 2024) [Hyperlink entire line to: https://investor.company.com/news/q3-2024-earnings] • Form 10-Q (Filed November 8, 2024) [Hyperlink to: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=...] • Earnings Call Transcript (November 7, 2024) [Hyperlink to: https://seekingalpha.com/article/...] • Investor Presentation (November 7, 2024) [Hyperlink to: https://investor.company.com/presentations/q3-2024.pdf] ``` **VERIFICATION CHECKLIST:** - [ ] Every figure has source with specific document and date - [ ] Every table has source with document reference - [ ] Beat/miss analysis cites consensus source with date - [ ] Guidance changes cite current and prior guidance sources - [ ] Key statistics have footnotes - [ ] Sources section lists all materials with URLs - [ ] ALL URLs are CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS (not plain text) - [ ] All SEC filings hyperlinked to EDGAR viewer ### 5. Updated Estimates - Update forward estimates based on results - Show old vs. new estimates clearly - Explain what changed and why ## High-Level Workflow The earnings update process follows 5 phases: ### Phase 1: Data Collection (30-60 minutes) **🚨🚨🚨 CRITICAL: TRAINING DATA IS OUTDATED 🚨🚨🚨** **BEFORE STARTING - COMPLETE THESE 4 STEPS IN ORDER:** 1. **CHECK TODAY'S DATE** - Write down the current date 2. **SEARCH FOR LATEST** - Use web search: "[Company] latest earnings results" 3. **VERIFY THE DATE** - Confirm earnings release is within last 3 months 4. **CHECK TRANSCRIPT DATE** - Verify transcript date matches release date **COMMON MISTAKE**: Using outdated earnings calls from training data instead of searching for the latest. **REQUIREMENTS:** - ✅ Search for latest earnings - do NOT rely on training data - ✅ Write down today's date and the release date found - ✅ Verify release date is within 3 months of today - ✅ Verify transcript date matches release date - ✅ If dates don't match or are old (>3 months), search again **See [references/workflow.md](references/workflow.md)** for detailed search procedures and verification steps. ### Phase 2: Analysis (2-3 hours) - Beat/miss analysis for each key metric - Segment/geographic/product breakdown - Margin and guidance analysis - Update financial model and estimates **See [references/workflow.md](references/workflow.md)** for detailed analysis framework. ### Phase 3: Chart Generation (1-2 hours) Create 8-12 charts focusing on quarterly trends and what's new: - Quarterly revenue progression - Quarterly EPS progression - Quarterly margin trends - Revenue by segment/geography - Key operating metrics - Beat/miss summary - Estimate revisions - Valuation charts **See [references/workflow.md](references/workflow.md)** for chart specifications. ### Phase 4: Report Creation (2-3 hours) Create 8-12 page DOCX report with specific structure. **See [references/report-structure.md](references/report-structure.md)** for complete page-by-page templates and formatting requirements. **High-level structure:** - Page 1: Earnings summary with rating and price target - Pages 2-3: Detailed results analysis - Pages 4-5: Key metrics & guidance - Pages 6-7: Updated investment thesis - Pages 8-10: Valuation & estimates - Pages 11-12: Appendix (optional) ### Phase 5: Quality Check & Delivery (30 minutes) Verify content, formatting, accuracy, and timeliness before delivery. **See [references/best-practices.md](references/best-practices.md)** for quality checklist and common mistakes to avoid. ## Output Specification **Primary Deliverable**: DOCX report (8-12 pages) **File Name**: `[Company]_Q[Quarter]_[Year]_Earnings_Update.docx` **Example**: `Nike_Q2_FY24_Earnings_Update.docx` **Contents:** - Page 1: Summary with rating, price target, key takeaways - Pages 2-3: Detailed results analysis - Pages 4-5: Key metrics and guidance - Pages 6-7: Updated thesis assessment - Pages 8-10: Valuation and estimates - Pages 11-12: Appendix (optional) - 8-12 embedded charts - 1-3 summary tables - Complete sources section with clickable hyperlinks **Optional Deliverable**: XLS model update (optional for earnings updates) ## Key Differences from Initiation Report | Aspect | Earnings Update | Initiation Report | |--------|----------------|-------------------| | **Length** | 8-12 pages | 30-50 pages | | **Words** | 3,000-5,000 | 10,000-15,000 | | **Tables** | 1-3 summary | 12-20 comprehensive | | **Figures** | 8-12 | 25-35 | | **Turnaround** | 1-2 days | 3-6 weeks | | **Scope** | Quarterly results | Complete company | | **Focus** | What's NEW | Everything | | **Company Background** | Brief mention | 6-10 pages | | **XLS Model** | Optional | Required | ## Resources ### references/workflow.md Detailed Phase 1-5 instructions with step-by-step procedures for data collection, analysis, chart generation, and report creation. ### references/report-structure.md Complete page-by-page templates, table formats, and formatting requirements for the DOCX report. ### references/best-practices.md Examples of good/bad headlines, tips for success, common mistakes to avoid, and comprehensive quality checklist. ## Dependencies **Required:** - Python (matplotlib, pandas, seaborn) for chart generation - DOCX skill for report creation **Optional:** - XLS skill for model updates (not required for earnings updates) ```` ### `references/best-practices.md` ````markdown # Best Practices, Examples, and Quality Guidelines This document provides examples, tips for success, common mistakes to avoid, and comprehensive quality checklists. ## Example Headlines ### Good Earnings Update Headlines: - "Nike Q2 FY24: DTC Strength Offsets Wholesale Weakness - Maintaining OW, PT $95" - "Tesla Q3'24: Cybertruck Ramp Ahead of Plan - Raising Estimates, PT to $285" - "LVMH Q4'24: Fashion & Leather Resilient, Wines Weak - In-Line, Reiterating Buy" - "Apple Q1 FY24: Services Beat, iPhone Miss - Mixed Quarter, Lowering PT to $185" ### Bad Headlines (Avoid): - "Nike Quarterly Update" (too generic, no takeaway) - "Company Reports Earnings" (states obvious, no analysis) - "Q3 Results Analysis" (no company name, no view) ## Tips for Success 1. **Speed matters**: Published 24-48hrs post-earnings, not days later 2. **Lead with conclusion**: Beat or miss? Up or down estimates? 3. **Quantify everything**: "Strong" means nothing, "$150M beat on $1.2B revenue" is clear 4. **Focus on drivers**: Don't just say "revenue beat", explain WHY 5. **Show the work**: Old estimates → New estimates with reasons 6. **Update price target if material**: If estimates change >5%, usually PT changes too 7. **Acknowledge the call**: Reference management commentary, don't just analyze the press release 8. **Compare to peers**: If similar companies reported, note relative performance 9. **Be concise**: This is NOT a comprehensive report, stay focused on quarterly results 10. **Chart the trends**: Quarterly progression charts are most valuable ## Common Mistakes to Avoid ❌ **Too comprehensive**: Don't write an initiation-length report for quarterly results ❌ **Missing beat/miss**: Lead with whether results beat or missed expectations ❌ **Not updating estimates**: Must provide updated forward estimates ❌ **Vague language**: "Strong performance" without quantification ❌ **Ignoring guidance**: If company guides, analyze it thoroughly ❌ **Too slow**: Publishing 5+ days after earnings loses relevance ❌ **Rehashing basics**: Don't spend 3 pages explaining what the company does ❌ **Missing price target update**: If estimates changed materially, PT should too ❌ **No investment impact**: Must connect results to thesis and rating ❌ **Missing citations**: Every number needs a source with clickable hyperlinks ❌ **Plain text URLs**: All URLs must be formatted as clickable hyperlinks ## Comprehensive Quality Control Checklist Before delivering earnings update, verify all items below: ### Content & Analysis Checklist **Beat/Miss Analysis:** - [ ] Beat/miss analysis leads the report - [ ] Specific variances quantified (e.g., "beat by $120M or 3%") - [ ] Explanation of WHY results differed from expectations - [ ] Analysis of each key metric (revenue, EPS, margins, etc.) **Metrics & Performance:** - [ ] All key metrics discussed with YoY comparisons - [ ] QoQ comparisons included where relevant - [ ] Segment/geographic/product breakdowns provided - [ ] Operating metrics analyzed (customers, ARPU, units, etc.) **Guidance & Estimates:** - [ ] Guidance changes analyzed and quantified (if provided) - [ ] If no guidance, this is explicitly noted - [ ] Updated estimates provided for current year - [ ] Updated estimates provided for next year - [ ] Old vs. new estimates clearly shown - [ ] Explanation of what changed and why **Valuation & Rating:** - [ ] Price target updated (if warranted by results) - [ ] If PT unchanged, explicitly maintained - [ ] Valuation methodology explained - [ ] Rating confirmed or changed with clear rationale - [ ] Investment thesis assessed and updated if needed ### Format & Length Checklist **Overall Structure:** - [ ] Report is 8-12 pages (not shorter, not longer) - [ ] Page 1 has earnings summary format - [ ] Page 1 has "EARNINGS UPDATE" in title (NOT "Initiating Coverage") - [ ] Event-driven title (e.g., "Strong Q3 Results...") **Tables:** - [ ] 1-3 summary tables included (NOT comprehensive tables) - [ ] All tables have clear column headers - [ ] All tables have header row shading - [ ] All tables have source lines at bottom - [ ] Estimates table shows old vs. new with change column **Charts:** - [ ] 8-12 charts embedded throughout document - [ ] All charts have "Figure X - [Title]" caption above - [ ] All charts have "Source: [Source]" line below - [ ] Charts focus on quarterly trends - [ ] Charts highlight changes (beat/miss, revisions) - [ ] Charts use professional styling ### Citations & Sources Checklist ⭐⭐⭐ MANDATORY **Figure & Table Citations:** - [ ] Every figure has specific source with document name and date - [ ] Every table has specific source with document reference - [ ] Source citations include page numbers or slide numbers where applicable **Beat/Miss Citations:** - [ ] Beat/miss analysis cites consensus source (Bloomberg, FactSet, etc.) - [ ] Consensus source includes "as of" date (pre-earnings close) - [ ] Company reported results cited to earnings release or 10-Q **Guidance Citations:** - [ ] Current guidance cited to earnings call transcript or release - [ ] Prior guidance cited to previous quarter's materials - [ ] Both current and prior guidance sources hyperlinked **Statistics & Metrics:** - [ ] Key statistics have footnotes with sources - [ ] Footnotes reference specific documents and page/slide numbers - [ ] Management quotes cite speaker name and source document **Hyperlinks:** ⭐⭐⭐ CRITICAL - [ ] ALL URLs are CLICKABLE HYPERLINKS (not plain text) - [ ] Hyperlinks formatted with meaningful display text - [ ] Blue, underlined hyperlink formatting in Word document - [ ] Hyperlinks tested and working (Ctrl+Click opens correct page) - [ ] All SEC filings hyperlinked to EDGAR viewer - [ ] All earnings materials hyperlinked (release, transcript, presentation) - [ ] Prior quarter materials hyperlinked for comparison - [ ] No raw URLs displayed anywhere in document **Sources Section:** - [ ] "Sources & References" section included at end of report - [ ] Section lists all earnings materials with dates - [ ] All materials have clickable hyperlinks - [ ] Consensus data sources listed (even if no link for subscription data) - [ ] Prior period references included ### Accuracy Checklist **Numerical Accuracy:** - [ ] Numbers match company's reported results exactly - [ ] Math checks out in all calculations - [ ] Estimate changes calculated correctly - [ ] Valuation math is accurate - [ ] Charts match text descriptions **Factual Accuracy:** - [ ] No typos in ticker symbol - [ ] No typos in company name - [ ] Dates are current and accurate - [ ] Quarter/year references are correct - [ ] Year notation correct (A for actual, E for estimate) ### Timeliness Checklist **Publication Timing:** - [ ] Report published within 24-48 hours of earnings release - [ ] If later than 48 hours, acknowledged as "delayed reaction" - [ ] ✅ **VERIFIED all data is from LATEST quarter by searching for recent earnings** - [ ] ✅ **Did NOT rely on knowledge cutoff - actively searched for current data** - [ ] Consensus estimates are pre-earnings (not post-earnings) - [ ] No outdated information included - [ ] Earnings release date is within last 1-3 months (not 6+ months old) ### Writing Style Checklist **Clarity & Directness:** - [ ] Lead with numbers ("Revenue grew 15% to $1.2B" not "Strong revenue") - [ ] Use "vs." not "versus" - [ ] Be direct and concise throughout - [ ] Focus on what's NEW (not rehashing company basics) - [ ] Avoid vague language ("strong performance" without quantification) **Professional Standards:** - [ ] Institutional tone maintained - [ ] Consistent terminology throughout - [ ] No informal language - [ ] Proper financial notation ## Pre-Delivery Final Check Run through this quick final check before sending report to user: ### 5-Minute Final Review: 1. **Page 1**: Rating clear? Price target updated? Key takeaways compelling? 2. **Numbers**: Do reported results match company's press release exactly? 3. **Citations**: Spot check 3-4 figures/tables - all have sources with clickable hyperlinks? 4. **Estimates**: Old vs. new clearly shown? Changes explained? 5. **Charts**: All 8-12 embedded? All numbered and captioned? 6. **Length**: Is it 8-12 pages (not 6, not 15)? 7. **Hyperlinks**: Test 3-4 hyperlinks - do they work with Ctrl+Click? 8. **Timeliness**: Is this being published within 48 hours of earnings? If all items check out, the report is ready for delivery. ## Summary Delivery Format When delivering the completed report to the user, provide this summary: ``` [Company] Q[X] [Year] Earnings Update Complete Results: [BEAT / INLINE / MISS] - Revenue: $X.XB ([beat/missed] by $XXM or X%) - EPS: $X.XX ([beat/missed] by $X.XX) Key Takeaways: ■ [Takeaway 1] ■ [Takeaway 2] ■ [Takeaway 3] Updated Estimates: - FY[Year]E Revenue: $XX.XB (prior: $XX.XB, [+/-]X%) - FY[Year]E EPS: $X.XX (prior: $X.XX, [+/-]X%) Rating: [MAINTAINED / RAISED / LOWERED] [RATING] Price Target: $XXX (prior: $XXX) - [+/-]XX% upside Deliverables: ✓ 8-12 page earnings update report (DOCX) ✓ 8-12 embedded charts ✓ Updated estimates with old/new comparison ✓ Complete sources section with clickable hyperlinks ✓ [Optional: Updated XLS financial model] File: [Company]_Q[X]_[Year]_Earnings_Update.docx ``` ```` ### `references/report-structure.md` ````markdown # Report Structure and Templates This document provides complete page-by-page templates and formatting requirements for the earnings update DOCX report. ## Complete Report Structure **REPORT STRUCTURE:** --- ## PAGE 1: EARNINGS SUMMARY **Top Section - Header:** ``` [COMPANY NAME] ([TICKER]) [QUARTER] [YEAR] EARNINGS UPDATE [Current Date] Rating: [MAINTAIN/RAISE/LOWER] [RATING] Price (as of [date]): $XX.XX Price Target: [OLD → NEW if changed, or MAINTAIN $XXX] ``` **Top Section - Quick Summary Box:** ``` EARNINGS SUMMARY ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Q[X] [YEAR] RESULTS: [BEAT / INLINE / MISS] Reported Est Variance Revenue $X,XXX $X,XXX +$XXX (+X%) EPS (Adj) $X.XX $X.XX +$X.XX (+X%) Key Takeaways: ■ [Takeaway 1 - one sentence] ■ [Takeaway 2 - one sentence] ■ [Takeaway 3 - one sentence] ``` **Main Content - Investment Impact (3-4 bullets):** Use ■ character with **bold headers** and paragraph-length explanations: ``` ■ **Results beat on strong [segment/geography/product], maintaining positive momentum** Q[X] revenue of $X.XB exceeded our $X.XB estimate by X% and consensus by X%, driven primarily by [specific driver]. [Segment] revenue grew X% YoY (vs. our X% estimate), while [segment] grew X% (vs. X% estimate). Management highlighted [specific products/initiatives] as key growth drivers and maintained confident tone on outlook. The beat demonstrates [thesis point], reinforcing our positive view. ■ **Margins expanded XXbps YoY despite [headwind], showcasing operational leverage** [Detailed margin analysis paragraph...] ■ **Guidance raised / maintained / lowered - implies [interpretation]** [Detailed guidance analysis paragraph...] ■ **Maintaining [RATING] with [raised/unchanged] $XXX price target** [Investment conclusion paragraph...] ``` **Bottom Section - Updated Estimates Table:** ``` UPDATED FINANCIAL ESTIMATES ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── FY2024E (OLD) FY2024E (NEW) Change FY2025E (NEW) Revenue ($M) XX,XXX XX,XXX +X% XX,XXX Revenue Growth (%) X.X% X.X% +XXbps X.X% Gross Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps XX.X% EBITDA ($M) X,XXX X,XXX +X% X,XXX EBITDA Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps XX.X% EPS (Adjusted) ($) X.XX X.XX +X% X.XX P/E (x) XX.Xx XX.Xx -X% XX.Xx Note: "E" = Estimate. Old estimates from [prior report date]. Source: Company data, [Firm Name] estimates. ``` --- ## PAGES 2-3: DETAILED RESULTS ANALYSIS Break down results by: ### Revenue Analysis (1 page) - Total revenue beat/miss explanation - Segment/geographic/product breakdown - YoY and sequential trends - Comparison to guidance (if provided) **Table: Quarterly Revenue Progression** ``` Q[X-3] Q[X-2] Q[X-1] Q[X] YoY Chg QoQ Chg Total Revenue ($M) X,XXX X,XXX X,XXX X,XXX +X% +X% [Segment A] ($M) XXX XXX XXX XXX +X% +X% [Segment B] ($M) XXX XXX XXX XXX +X% +X% [Segment C] ($M) XXX XXX XXX XXX +X% +X% Note: Q[X] = [Quarter] [Year] Source: Company reports, [Firm Name] analysis ``` ### Profitability Analysis (1 page) - Gross margin analysis (drivers, trends) - Operating margin analysis - Below-the-line items (interest, tax, etc.) - EPS reconciliation (adjusted vs. GAAP) **Table: Margin Analysis** ``` Q[X-3] Q[X-2] Q[X-1] Q[X] YoY Chg Gross Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps Operating Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps Net Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps Key Drivers: + [Positive driver 1] + [Positive driver 2] - [Negative driver 1] - [Negative driver 2] ``` **Embed 2-3 charts on these pages:** - Chart 1: Quarterly revenue progression - Chart 2: Quarterly EPS progression - Chart 3: Margin trends --- ## PAGES 4-5: KEY METRICS & GUIDANCE ### Business Metrics (1 page) - Customer count, ARPU, units, store count, etc. - Whatever metrics company emphasizes - Comparison to expectations - Trends and outlook **Table: Key Operating Metrics** ``` Q[X-3] Q[X-2] Q[X-1] Q[X] YoY Chg Our Est Var [Metric 1] XXX XXX XXX XXX +X% XXX +X% [Metric 2] XXX XXX XXX XXX +X% XXX +X% [Metric 3] XXX XXX XXX XXX +X% XXX +X% Source: Company reports ``` ### Guidance & Outlook (1 page) - What guidance was provided (if any) - Comparison to prior guidance - Comparison to Street estimates - Our assessment of achievability - Key assumptions **If guidance provided:** ``` MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE vs. ESTIMATES ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── New Guidance Old Guidance Change Street FY2024E Revenue $XX-XXB $XX-XXB Raised $XX.XB FY2024E EPS $X.XX-X.XX $X.XX-X.XX Raised $X.XX Our Take: [Brief assessment of guidance] ``` **Embed 2-3 charts:** - Chart 4: Key metrics trends - Chart 5: Guidance vs. Street comparison - Chart 6: Revenue by segment/geography --- ## PAGES 6-7: UPDATED INVESTMENT THESIS ### Thesis Impact Assessment (1-2 pages) For each key thesis pillar, assess impact of results: ``` ■ **Thesis Pillar 1: [Original thesis statement]** Status: [STRENGTHENED / UNCHANGED / WEAKENED] Q[X] results [supported / challenged] this thesis pillar because [specific evidence from results]. [Detailed analysis of 150-200 words explaining how results impact this specific thesis element.] ■ **Thesis Pillar 2: [Original thesis statement]** [Similar analysis] ■ **Thesis Pillar 3: [Original thesis statement]** [Similar analysis] ``` ### Risks Update (0.5 pages) - Any new risks identified? - Have existing risks been mitigated or worsened? - Brief assessment **Embed 1-2 charts:** - Chart 7: Valuation vs. historical - Chart 8: Estimate revision comparison --- ## PAGES 8-10: VALUATION & ESTIMATES ### Updated Valuation (1-2 pages) **DCF Update:** ``` Updated DCF inputs based on Q[X] results: - Revenue growth FY24E: X.X% → X.X% (raised/lowered) - EBIT margin FY24E: XX.X% → XX.X% - Terminal growth: X.X% (unchanged) - WACC: X.X% (unchanged) Updated DCF fair value: $XXX (prior: $XXX) ``` **Comparable Companies:** ``` [Company] trades at XX.Xx NTM P/E vs. peer median of XX.Xx (-X% discount). Given [rationale], we believe [premium/discount/inline] valuation is warranted. ``` **Price Target Methodology:** ``` Our $XXX price target (prior: $XXX) is based on: - XX% DCF - XX% NTM P/E of XX.Xx (vs. peers at XX.Xx) - XX% EV/EBITDA Implied upside: +XX% from current price of $XXX ``` ### Updated Estimates Detail Provide updated estimates for at least current year and next year: ``` DETAILED ESTIMATE UPDATES ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── FY2024E FY2025E Old New Change New Estimate Revenue ($B) XX.X XX.X +X.X% XX.X [Segment A] XX.X XX.X +X.X% XX.X [Segment B] XX.X XX.X +X.X% XX.X Gross Profit ($B) XX.X XX.X +X.X% XX.X Gross Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps XX.X% EBITDA ($B) X.X X.X +X.X% X.X EBITDA Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps XX.X% Operating Income X.X X.X +X.X% X.X Op Margin (%) XX.X% XX.X% +XXbps XX.X% Net Income ($B) X.X X.X +X.X% X.X EPS - Adjusted ($) X.XX X.XX +X.X% X.XX EPS - GAAP ($) X.XX X.XX +X.X% X.XX P/E (x) XX.Xx XX.Xx XX.Xx EV/EBITDA (x) XX.Xx XX.Xx XX.Xx Source: [Firm Name] estimates ``` **Embed 1-2 charts:** - Chart 9: P/E or EV/EBITDA bands - Chart 10: Price target walk (old → new) --- ## PAGES 11-12: APPENDIX (Optional) ### Detailed Quarterly Models (if space allows) - Income statement detail - Cash flow highlights - Balance sheet highlights ### Call Transcript Highlights (optional) - Key Q&A excerpts - Notable management quotes ### Peer Comparison (if peers have reported) - How results compare to competitors - Market share implications **Embed final charts:** - Chart 11: Peer comparison - Chart 12: Additional supporting charts --- ## FORMATTING REQUIREMENTS ### 1. Page 1 Requirements - Clear rating (MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM, RAISE TO BUY, etc.) - Updated price target prominently displayed - Summary table with old/new estimates - 3-4 paragraph-length bullets with ■ character ### 2. All Tables Requirements - Source line at bottom - Clear column headers - Shading for header rows ### 3. All Charts Requirements - "Figure X - [Title]" caption above - "Source: [Source]" line below - Professional styling ### 4. Year Notation - Use A for actual (Q3'24A) - Use E for estimate (Q4'24E) ### 5. Writing Style - Lead with numbers ("Revenue grew 15% to $1.2B" not "Strong revenue growth") - Use "vs." not "versus" - Be direct and concise - Focus on what's NEW ### 6. Hyperlink Requirements ⭐⭐⭐ - ALL URLs must be clickable hyperlinks in Word - Blue, underlined text that opens on Ctrl+Click - Display text meaningful (not raw URL) - Every source citation should have clickable link where applicable - No plain text URLs - always format as hyperlinks ## Citation Examples for Specific Content ### For Beat/Miss Analysis: ``` Revenue of $2.45B beat consensus of $2.39B by $60M (2.5%)¹ ¹ Bloomberg consensus as of market close November 6, 2024; Company earnings release November 7, 2024 [Hyperlink "earnings release" to: https://investor.company.com/news/q3-2024-earnings] ``` ### For Guidance: ``` Management raised FY2024 revenue guidance to $9.8-10.0B from prior $9.5-9.7B² ² Q3 2024 Earnings Call, November 7, 2024, CFO prepared remarks [Hyperlink "Earnings Call" to: https://seekingalpha.com/article/...] Prior guidance from Q2 earnings call August 8, 2024 [Hyperlink "Q2 earnings call" to August transcript] ``` ### For Key Metrics: ``` Enterprise customers grew 23% YoY to 845, with net revenue retention at 128%³ ³ Q3 2024 10-Q, page 23 [Hyperlink "10-Q" to: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=...] Q3 2024 Investor Presentation slide 8 [Hyperlink "Investor Presentation" to PDF] ``` ```` ### `references/workflow.md` ````markdown # Detailed Workflow for Earnings Updates This document provides detailed step-by-step instructions for each phase of the earnings update process. ## ⚠️⚠️⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: ALWAYS USE THE LATEST EARNINGS DATA ⚠️⚠️⚠️ **STOP AND READ THIS FIRST:** Training data is OUTDATED. Actively search for and retrieve the MOST RECENT earnings materials. Using outdated earnings data is the #1 mistake in earnings analysis. **BEFORE STARTING:** 1. **CHECK TODAY'S DATE** - Write down the current date 2. **SEARCH FOR LATEST** - Use web search to find the most recent earnings 3. **VERIFY THE DATE** - Confirm the earnings release is within the last 3 months 4. **IF OLDER THAN 3 MONTHS** - Wrong quarter obtained, search again ## Phase 1: Earnings Data Collection (30-60 minutes) ### Step 1: Identify the Latest Earnings Period **CRITICAL**: ALWAYS SEARCH FOR THE LATEST EARNINGS - DO NOT RELY ON KNOWLEDGE CUTOFF. **CRITICAL**: NEVER USE EARNINGS DATA FROM TRAINING - IT IS OUTDATED. **Step 1a: Search for Latest Earnings Release** **🚨 ACTIVELY SEARCH - training data is outdated. 🚨** **MANDATORY STEP 1: CHECK TODAY'S DATE** - **Write down today's date explicitly**: [Month] [Day], [Year] - **Use this to verify** that any earnings found are within 3 months - **Example**: "Today is October 29, 2024" **MANDATORY STEP 2: SEARCH FOR "LATEST EARNINGS"** - **Use web search** with queries like: - `[Company name] latest earnings results` - `[Company name] most recent quarterly earnings` - `[Ticker symbol] earnings latest quarter` - **OR search company investor relations site**: - Go to `investor.[company].com` or `[company].com/investors` - Navigate to "Press Releases", "News", or "Earnings" section - **Sort by date to find MOST RECENT release** - Look for keywords: "earnings", "results", "financial results", "quarterly results" **MANDATORY STEP 3: VERIFY THE RELEASE DATE** - **Look at the date of the earnings release found** - **Calculate**: Is this date within the last 3 months from today? - **If YES** → Proceed to next step - **If NO (older than 3 months)** → 🚨 WRONG QUARTER - Search again for more recent **❌ COMMON MISTAKES TO AVOID:** - ❌ Using earnings data from training without searching - ❌ Assuming "Q3 2024" is latest based on expectations - ❌ Grabbing the first earnings release found without checking the date - ❌ Not comparing the release date to today's date - ❌ Proceeding when the release is 4+ months old **✅ CORRECT APPROACH:** - ✅ Check today's date first - ✅ Search explicitly for "latest" or "most recent" - ✅ Read the actual release date on the materials - ✅ Confirm release date is within 3 months of today - ✅ If unsure, search again with different terms **MANDATORY STEP 4: IDENTIFY THE QUARTER** - **Read the title/headline** to identify the quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 or fiscal quarter) - **Read the release date** on the document itself - **Verify both the quarter name AND the date are recent** 3. **Alternative search methods if IR site is unclear:** - Web search: `[Company name] latest earnings results` - Web search: `[Company name] most recent quarterly earnings` - Web search: `[Ticker symbol] earnings latest quarter` - SEC EDGAR: Search for company and look at most recent 10-Q or 10-K filing date **Example searches that find latest data:** - "Nike latest earnings results" → Returns most recent quarter reported - "AAPL most recent quarterly earnings" → Shows latest Apple earnings - "Tesla Q3 2024 earnings" → Results confirm Q3 2024 exists **Step 1b: Understand Company's Fiscal Calendar** After identifying the latest quarter from search, understand the company's fiscal year to interpret it correctly: **Common fiscal year patterns:** - **Calendar year (CY)**: Q1=Jan-Mar, Q2=Apr-Jun, Q3=Jul-Sep, Q4=Oct-Dec - **Nike fiscal**: Q1=Jun-Aug, Q2=Sep-Nov, Q3=Dec-Feb, Q4=Mar-May (May fiscal year-end) - **Apple fiscal**: Q1=Oct-Dec, Q2=Jan-Mar, Q3=Apr-Jun, Q4=Jul-Sep (September fiscal year-end) - **Walmart fiscal**: Q1=Feb-Apr, Q2=May-Jul, Q3=Aug-Oct, Q4=Nov-Jan (January fiscal year-end) Many companies state their fiscal year in the earnings release header. Search `[company] fiscal year calendar` if needed. **Step 1c: MANDATORY VERIFICATION - Verify Latest Data Obtained** 🛑 **STOP - DO NOT PROCEED until verifying ALL of these:** - [ ] ✅ **Today's date written down**: [Month] [Day], [Year] - [ ] ✅ **Actively searched** using "latest earnings" or "most recent earnings" - [ ] ✅ **Earnings release date found**: [Month] [Day], [Year] - [ ] ✅ **Verified release is within 3 months of today** (do the math!) - [ ] ✅ **Did NOT assume** the quarter based on today's date alone - [ ] ✅ **Can see the actual press release** confirming the quarter/period - [ ] ✅ **Opened and read** the actual earnings materials (not just assumed they exist) **🚨 RED FLAGS - If ANY of these are true, WRONG quarter obtained:** - 🚨 Release date is more than 90 days old - 🚨 Relying on expectations rather than what was FOUND by searching - 🚨 Have not actually SEEN a press release or filing confirming this quarter exists - 🚨 Used data from training without searching - 🚨 Cannot state the exact release date - 🚨 Release date found is from 2023 or earlier (when today is 2024+) **IF ANY RED FLAGS PRESENT**: STOP and search again. Do not proceed with outdated data. **Step 1c: Handle Naming Variations** Companies use different terminology - recognize these patterns: **Quarter terminology:** - "Q1 2024", "Q1 FY24", "First Quarter 2024", "1Q24" - "Third Quarter Fiscal 2024", "Q3 FY2024", "3Q FY24" **Earnings release titles:** - "[Company] Reports Q3 2024 Results" - "[Company] Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2024 Financial Results" - "[Company] Q3 Revenue Grew 15% Year-over-Year" **SEC filing searches:** - Company name may differ from common name (e.g., "Meta Platforms, Inc." vs "Facebook") - Search by ticker symbol to find filings reliably - Look for most recent 10-Q (quarterly) or 10-K (annual if Q4) ### Step 2: Gather Earnings Materials After SEARCHING FOR and confirming the latest quarter, collect the following: **⚠️ IMPORTANT: SEARCH for and ACCESS actual documents - do not rely on training data.** **Primary Materials (REQUIRED):** - **Earnings press release** - Usually on company investor relations site under "Press Releases" or "News" - Navigate to IR site and find the actual press release - Search patterns: "[Company name] latest earnings", "[Company name] Q[X] [Year] earnings results" - Look for PDF or HTML version - **Verify the date matches what was found in Step 1** (should be within last 1-3 months) - **Read the actual document** to confirm the quarter and get reported numbers - **10-Q or 10-K filing** - On SEC EDGAR (sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html) - Search by ticker symbol - For quarters 1-3: Look for most recent 10-Q - For Q4: Look for 10-K (annual report) - Note: May be filed 1-5 days after earnings release - Direct link format: `https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/viewer?accession=[accession-number]` - **Earnings call transcript** - 🚨 **VERIFY THE DATE ON THE TRANSCRIPT** 🚨 - **Search for**: "[Company] latest earnings call transcript" or "[Company] Q[X] [Year] earnings call transcript" - **Sources**: - Company IR site (some post transcripts directly) - Seeking Alpha: Search "[Company] [latest quarter] earnings call transcript" - AlphaStreet, Motley Fool (alternative sources) - **CRITICAL DATE CHECK**: - ✅ **Before using ANY transcript, verify the date on the transcript itself** - ✅ **The transcript date MUST match the earnings release date from Step 1** - ✅ **If transcript says "Q2 2023" but release was "Q3 2024", WRONG transcript obtained** - 🚨 **Common mistake**: Grabbing an old transcript without checking the date - If transcript not yet available, listen to webcast replay or note to wait for transcript **Supplemental Materials (if available):** - **Investor presentation/slides** - Often posted on IR site alongside press release - Usually titled "Q[X] [Year] Earnings Presentation" or "Investor Presentation" - PDF format with slides management presented during earnings call - **Supplemental data file** - Some companies provide Excel files with detailed metrics - Look for "Supplemental Financial Information" or "Investor Data Sheet" **Reference Materials (for comparison):** - **Prior quarter results** - For QoQ comparison - From prior quarter's earnings release (90 days ago) - **Prior year same quarter** - For YoY comparison - From same quarter last year (4 quarters ago) - **Prior estimates** - If this company was previously covered - From last earnings update or initiation report - Check what was estimated for this quarter's metrics - **Consensus estimates** - From Bloomberg, FactSet, Refinitiv, or Yahoo Finance - CRITICAL: Use estimates from BEFORE earnings release - Look for "as of [date before earnings]" to ensure pre-announcement consensus - Needed for beat/miss analysis **🛑 MANDATORY VERIFICATION before proceeding to Step 3:** **DATES - Verify ALL dates match:** - [ ] ✅ **Today's date written down**: _______________ - [ ] ✅ **Earnings release date**: _______________ (MUST be within 3 months of today) - [ ] ✅ **Earnings call transcript date**: _______________ (MUST match release date ±1 day) - [ ] ✅ **10-Q/10-K filing date**: _______________ (MUST be same quarter as release) - [ ] ✅ **ALL materials show SAME quarter** (e.g., all say "Q3 2024", not mixed quarters) **SEARCH & ACCESS - Verify active search completed:** - [ ] ✅ **SEARCHED** for "latest earnings" (not assumed based on current date) - [ ] ✅ **ACCESSED** actual earnings press release and read it - [ ] ✅ **OPENED** actual earnings call transcript and verified date - [ ] ✅ **CONFIRMED** this is the MOST RECENT quarter by checking dates - [ ] ✅ Have full financial results (revenue, EPS, margins, etc.) from actual release - [ ] ✅ Have pre-earnings consensus estimates with source date **🚨 RED FLAGS - STOP if ANY of these are true:** - 🚨 Did NOT actually search for or access the earnings materials - 🚨 Working from memory or training data instead of current documents - 🚨 The earnings release date is more than 90 days old - 🚨 Cannot state the EXACT DATE of the earnings release - 🚨 The transcript date does NOT match the release date - 🚨 Materials show different quarters (e.g., release says Q3 but transcript says Q2) - 🚨 Grabbed the first result without verifying the date ### Step 3: Extract Key Metrics Create a structured summary: ``` REPORTED RESULTS vs. ESTIMATES: ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Reported Our Est Consensus Beat/(Miss) Revenue $X,XXX $X,XXX $X,XXX $XX (X%) Gross Margin XX.X% XX.X% XX.X% XXbps EBITDA $XXX $XXX $XXX $XX (X%) Operating Profit $XXX $XXX $XXX $XX (X%) EPS (Adjusted) $X.XX $X.XX $X.XX $X.XX EPS (GAAP) $X.XX $X.XX $X.XX $X.XX KEY BUSINESS METRICS: ───────────────────────────────────────────────── [Metric 1] XXX XXX XXX +X% YoY [Metric 2] XXX XXX XXX +X% YoY [Metric 3] XXX XXX XXX +X% YoY ``` ### Step 4: Identify Key Themes from Call Listen to or read earnings call transcript and note: - Management's tone (confident, cautious, defensive?) - Key topics emphasized (product launches, geographic trends, competition) - Questions from analysts (what are investors concerned about?) - Guidance provided (raised, lowered, maintained, introduced?) - Any surprises or unexpected commentary ## Phase 2: Analysis (2-3 hours) ### Step 5: Beat/Miss Analysis For EACH key metric that beat or missed, explain: **If BEAT:** - What drove the outperformance? - Was it one-time or sustainable? - Did management guide higher going forward? - How does this impact our thesis? **If MISS:** - What went wrong? - Was it company-specific or industry-wide? - Is management taking corrective action? - How does this impact our thesis? **Example Format:** ``` ■ **Revenue Beat by 3% Driven by Strong DTC Performance** Revenue of $13.5B exceeded our estimate of $13.1B by $400M (3%) and consensus of $13.2B by $300M (2%). The outperformance was driven primarily by Direct-to- Consumer channels, which grew 18% YoY (vs. our 12% estimate), offsetting weaker-than-expected wholesale (-5% vs. flat estimate). Management cited strong digital demand and successful product launches (Pegasus 40 running shoe, new Jordan colorways) as key drivers. DTC now represents 42% of total revenue vs. 38% a year ago, demonstrating successful channel shift strategy. ``` ### Step 6: Segment/Geographic/Product Analysis Analyze performance by: - Business segment (if multi-segment company) - Geography (North America, Europe, China, etc.) - Product category - Channel (retail, wholesale, e-commerce) Identify: - What outperformed expectations? - What underperformed? - Trends vs. prior quarters - Management commentary on outlook for each area ### Step 7: Margin Analysis Analyze profitability: - Gross margin: up or down? why? - Operating margin: up or down? why? - Key drivers (pricing, mix, costs, leverage) - Outlook going forward ### Step 8: Guidance Analysis If company provided guidance: - Compare new guidance to prior guidance - Compare to internal estimates and Street estimates - Assess credibility (does company have track record of sandbagging? beating?) - Identify key assumptions behind guidance If company did NOT provide guidance: - Note this explicitly - Provide independent outlook based on results and commentary ### Step 9: Update Financial Model Update estimates for: - Current year (remaining quarters) - Next year - Potentially year after **Show clearly:** ``` UPDATED ESTIMATES: ───────────────────────────────────────────────── Old Est New Est Change Reason FY2024E Revenue $XX.XB $XX.XB +X.X% [Brief reason] FY2024E EBITDA $X.XB $X.XB +X.X% [Brief reason] FY2024E EPS $X.XX $X.XX +X.X% [Brief reason] FY2025E Revenue $XX.XB $XX.XB +X.X% [Brief reason] FY2025E EBITDA $X.XB $X.XB +X.X% [Brief reason] FY2025E EPS $X.XX $X.XX +X.X% [Brief reason] ``` ### Step 10: Update Valuation & Price Target Based on updated estimates: - Recalculate DCF (use updated cash flows) - Update comparable company multiples (if peer group has reported) - Determine new fair value - Decide if price target changes **Price Target Decision:** - If estimates changed significantly (>5%) → Usually change price target - If estimates changed marginally (<5%) → May maintain price target - If thesis strengthened/weakened → May change even without estimate change ### Step 11: Assess Rating Impact Decide whether to change rating: - If results significantly better than expected + guidance raised → Consider upgrade - If results significantly worse + guidance cut → Consider downgrade - If inline or mixed → Usually maintain rating **Consider:** - Stock reaction (up/down/flat?) - Valuation (expensive/cheap relative to new estimates?) - Risk/reward (asymmetry shifted?) ## Phase 3: Chart Generation (1-2 hours) ### Step 12: Generate 8-12 Charts Create charts focusing on QUARTERLY TRENDS and WHAT'S NEW. **REQUIRED CHARTS (8-12 total):** 1. **Quarterly Revenue Progression** (Bar chart) - Last 8-12 quarters - Show beat/miss vs. estimates each quarter - Highlight current quarter 2. **Quarterly EPS Progression** (Bar chart) - Last 8-12 quarters - Show beat/miss vs. estimates - Adjusted and GAAP 3. **Quarterly Margin Trend** (Line chart) - Gross margin, EBIT margin, net margin - Last 8-12 quarters - Show trajectory 4. **Revenue by Segment/Geography** (Stacked bar OR table) - Current quarter vs. YoY - Growth rates by segment 5. **Key Operating Metrics** (Multi-line chart) - Customer count, ARPU, units sold, etc. (whatever is relevant) - Last 8-12 quarters 6. **Beat/Miss Summary** (Waterfall or table) - Show components of beat/miss - What drove variance from estimates 7. **Estimate Revision Chart** (Before/after comparison) - Old FY estimates vs. new FY estimates - Bar chart showing change 8. **Valuation Chart** (P/E or EV/EBITDA multiple) - Historical multiple range - Current multiple - Fair value multiple **OPTIONAL CHARTS (if space allows):** - Peer comparison (if peers have reported) - Guidance vs. Street comparison - Cash flow metrics - Balance sheet highlights (if notable) **Chart Style Guidelines:** - Focus on TRENDS (quarterly progression) - Highlight CHANGES (beat/miss, estimate revisions) - Keep simple and clear (this is a fast-turnaround report) ## Phase 4: Report Creation (2-3 hours) ### Step 13: Create DOCX Report Use DOCX skill to create 8-12 page report. See [report-structure.md](report-structure.md) for complete page-by-page templates and formatting requirements. **Key Steps:** 1. Create Page 1 with earnings summary and quick takeaways 2. Add detailed results analysis (Pages 2-3) 3. Include key metrics and guidance (Pages 4-5) 4. Update investment thesis (Pages 6-7) 5. Provide valuation and estimates (Pages 8-10) 6. Add appendix if needed (Pages 11-12) 7. Embed all 8-12 charts throughout 8. Add 1-3 summary tables 9. Include complete sources section with clickable hyperlinks ### Step 14: Optional - Update XLS Model If a full financial model exists for this company (from initiation), update it with: - Actual Q[X] results - Revised estimates for future quarters - Updated valuation **Note**: For earnings updates, a full XLS file is OPTIONAL (not required like in initiation reports). The DOCX report is the primary deliverable. If creating XLS, include: - Quarterly model tab - Updated annual projections - Revised DCF - Updated comps analysis ## Phase 5: Quality Check & Delivery (30 minutes) ### Step 15: Quality Checklist Before publishing, verify: **Content:** - [ ] Beat/miss clearly stated and quantified - [ ] Key drivers explained (not just "strong performance") - [ ] Updated estimates provided (old vs. new shown) - [ ] Price target updated or explicitly maintained - [ ] Rating confirmed or changed with rationale - [ ] Guidance analyzed (if provided) - [ ] Thesis impact assessed **Formatting:** - [ ] Page 1 has summary box and key bullets - [ ] All tables have source lines - [ ] All figures numbered and captioned - [ ] Estimates table shows old vs. new - [ ] 8-12 charts embedded throughout - [ ] Report is 8-12 pages (not too long, not too short) **Accuracy:** - [ ] Numbers match company's reported results exactly - [ ] Math checks out (estimates, valuation) - [ ] No typos in ticker, company name, numbers - [ ] Charts match text descriptions - [ ] Date is current **Citations:** ⭐ MANDATORY - [ ] Every figure has specific source with document and date - [ ] Every table has specific source with document reference - [ ] Beat/miss analysis cites consensus source with date - [ ] Guidance changes cite current and prior guidance sources - [ ] Key statistics have footnotes with specific page/slide references - [ ] Sources section lists all materials with URLs - [ ] ALL URLs are CLICKABLE ... ````